The expert systems, mother cells and genetics, define a radical present and future for health and for society. It appears to be a new industrial revolution. Human being adaptation to this strong new era will determines a new social model
A dilemma. Expert systems, ethics and a new social model.Thank you! Jesús Dorado Debeza for your translation
A few years ago, back in May 2007, while I was studying a postgraduate in a prestigious Spanish business school with worldwide presence, an excelent professor whom I was privileged to meet, enjoy and learn from, helped us progress (as part of his differential classes of business statistics) in a case about this real decision-making process, related to possibility of a sound investment.
In that context, of a business case, the model-solution relationship was wilfully made more complex with “constructive scientific malice aforethought by the professor” so we could get the knack and capacity to analyse the business need to solve, and also in order to apply our decision conclusions by making use of a wide range of statistics and models, which aimed to explain data distributions.
Thus our professor recommended us to follow below sequence of steps:
1) Searching for information sources as trustworthy & proven as possible.
2) Ruling out useless parameters.
4) Considering and estimating how data can be best transformed.
5) Treating & processing data sets which are expected to turn relevant and useful.
6) Combining the different alternatives that we have in order to give a solution and to treat each and every one of the steps and combined situations that we need to address the case. Along those lines a real life case related to a business need would be for instance facing two alternatives: to make or not to make a real estate investment.
The final appearance of the endless excel worksheet looked very much like a `matrix´ product. In brief we have reached a randomized simulation model designed for decision-making process. where dynamic simulations (resulting from giving different values to relevant variables in our model) are presented & depicted in real life change. This enables us to appreciate how different values of the key variables impact on the final decision to take…known as `what if´.
This random functioning gave color in a dynamic and fancifully manner (due to sheer chance) to the worksheet cells, each one linked to multiple decision alternatives that generate various changes in variables values that our `matrix model´ considers going randomly from a red filling, to red or to an orange filling.
The model mostly showed was the green cell-filling, but there were also (though relatively less) cells filled with orange and red. Finally the model is presented to the Board of a Spanish energy multinational versioned more or less in the following fashion:
With a probability of “P”, a certain deposit with potenctial energy raw material is expected to have a lifetime of “Y “years or longer, assuming “V” as daily raw material extracted. We reckon that the Board that is provided with this random model (so dynamic as well) with continuous real life decision-making simulations of outcomes like `Now The Decision is Yes´, could be, let us say, charged of certain worrying concepts….
….`Now the Decision is Yes as well´, `Now No´, `Now Investment Decision Could Be Successful only if certain combination of variables works´.
We would be `intellectually restless´ to say the least, because we would not be very sure when pressing the button `Go Ahead´ or the button `Stop´ before such spiralling & dazzling reality. It is Difficult to figure out what the Board could be thinking about when facing the decision of which button to press.
Anyhow this model poses a Much Better Support to Take a Decision rather than just trusting one´s intuition. Thus our dear professor and mentor Pedro used to say: `There you have the model, that is my Responsibility as Technical Consultant. Now You Assume Yours as Top Executives in this business´.
Finally Board Members make up their mind and pressed The Button. INVEST!
I Suppose that they would have to convince their respective Shareholders that this Proyect contributed somehow with added value to business P&L. What I do not know about, is whether they spoke about `Matrix´ and about Decisions that were taken based on a random model certainly complex, difficult to understand and based on probability that actually worked, with a superior probability `P´, a paragraph ´P1´% and a confidence interval `C´%.
Surely in this ambitious project (that was carried out and, in the end, a successful investment) the most expensive part (as in most energy projects) was the cost to access trustworthy and well-reputed information sources based on pricey in-depth geological studies.
In that model `Business Solution´ the statistician is the one that filters (following his/her sound professional criteria) the Knowledge and which model can turn our to be the adequate according to his/her best understanding, in order to find best possible Solution.
Nowadays, thanks to the Neural Networks and to other proactive modelling tools (which, by the way, are not nothing paragraph new concepts) that allow profound learning about variables that conform Behaviours, Images, signals, Videos… (deep learning of the analysis of variables and their dynamism).
The role of the mtatician, the mathematician,the physical and the physician, and why not, the role of anyone who Wants and Can Do it, consists of applying The Knowledge to select and Activate the necessary tools to apply to face the challenge: satisfying and meeting a Human Need. Thus they supervise feeding process to go back, and/or correction and/or refinement of the `drudgery´ / of the starting model, so afterwards the own tools are processed. It sounds like: `IS IT LIKE THE NEW INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION, SOMETHING SIMILAR? DOES NoT IT?
This way, Today, Here and Now, black boxes, incomprehensible for most people, with algorithms of questionable and questioned `traceability´ (i.e. questioned by Banking Regulatory Bodies in certain Countries) provide us (and we insist here, today, here and now) ESSENTIAL solutions to Take Decisions with very High level of Success Probability.
Summarising, the reality is that these business solutions actually Work! And they allow you to reach original Conclusions like: in Certain European Country, the best client that repays a certain debt is a foreigner who has a landline.
Even tougher, we insist here, it is a professional answer to why they Work and How. We do not have a clear traceability either about how it has evolved.
`Matrix is stubborn´, it is dynamic, and it autosophisticates when new `entries´ are introduced, it self-learns out of its own mistakes and re-learns; and the most differential feature is; deciding very quickly about BEFORE and BETTER because it is very swift in analysis and processing data, it is capable to act, (practically in real time) with a truly adequate infrastructure, and it also takes into account a great number of factors, dimensions and points of view, unattainable for me even if I dedicated the rest of my life solely focused on it.
Besides it is us, who create and update a `Matrix´. If solely applied to the energy field, I feel vertigo thinking about it, these expert systems give me the creeps and, perhaps, make me feel panic. But I know that they work, and they actually Work very well. If I know how to use them, and additionally they work in my own benefit, in fact, when I surf the web, I am being applied (my behaviour) and analysed via these techniques today, here and Now.
With this case, I do my best to illustrate that this is applicable to ANY decision that we Hhave to take at any given field of knowledge, and specially in medicine.
In the past, we used to have the excuse that using this type of support for decision-makers of the medical clinic was not viable due to costs and to the lack of adequate tools and technological infrastructure. Now we have no excuse.
Either I am prepared to do IT, or I am not.
I cannot fight against “Tech” since it is my responsibility and my fault. As my dear Aníbal R.says: `if you do not react, do not complain´. Or else, Antonio A. says: `Try your best´. At the beginning we start creating stubbornly made models, and later on, we can reach a more refined version that solve your need. Brilliant!
Evolve, reinvent yourself and fight. I would also say, let´s get out of comfort zone because the opportunities are outside that zone.
As Steve Jobs stated in his speech in the Graduation event of Stanford University: `Stay Foolish, Stay Hungry´. It has become more and more of a reality that the line that differentiates the role of the technician and decision-maker is getting thinner and dimmer every day.
It looks like the upsetting dilemma that Einstein had about how the micro and the macro integrate and correlate with one another in the cosmos. In the end, he was not able to explain that everything is Integrated and in harmony. The dilemma comes up all the time, again and again, in different Fields, and more and more Often.
Are we willing to accept a new order that evolves unstoppably in the present towards the tendency that expert systems will plan us and make decision-making processes easier and sooner? Are we willing to accept that we are unavoidably turning ourselves into data scientists to become more effective, efficient and useful?
Then, LET´S GO FOR IT!
The path to attain it is full of free tools to understand this new reality that we live in and that we are going to continue living.
For example, as an economist we focus on making the most out scarce resources that could also be utilised in an alternative manner. We try to do it in an effective and efficient manner to live as best as we can, also bearing in mind , and above any other consideration, we make the most out of the time to generate added value. Thus, I consider these Technologies as very positive in the sense that they allow us to take more and better decisions.
I am very worried about immediacy, because every day, I generate New cases about which I have to decide.
Thanks to expert systems and to `Off the Shell´ solutions we will be able to diagnose earlier and better, we will also be able to take better decisions, and before about HOW TO ACT AND TREAT the diagnosing finding, hence improving the AVAC, AVAD,QUALYs, DALYs.
We will also be able to Generate an Early Diagnose of Diseases Based on a real time monitoring, and therefore we will APPLY the most appropiate CLINICAL SOLUTION given the existing and viable alternatives. Thus the unusual pains will not become that unusual, and we will be in a position to utilise the necessary resources according to procedure, adherence of treatments will be improved, cross-functional and cross-fields procedures shall become more effective and efficient and we will ultimately be able to Research more, earlier and better.
One day we were under the impression that the industrial revolution did away with a lot of things, and really speaking, the only thing that has happened is that society transformed into a NEW SOCIETY WITH A NEW MODEL.
It is a DILEMMA. How will the new social model be? Let´s Bet, but let´s also stick to Ethics ALL OF US in this process!
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Luis Silva Ponte.
Managing Partner of bestprofile-sustainable health and innovation-management consulting.
“Realizing for you”